Understanding Evolving Republican Attitudes Towards Democracy
November 2025
NEW RESEARCH FINDS AMERICANS DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT U.S. DEMOCRACY
Survey from SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins and Public Agenda Pinpoint Distinct Divides Within Republican Party
A new study from the SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University and Public Agenda finds that Americans are deeply concerned about the state of U.S. democracy and that growing divisions within the Republican Party deepen partisan divides over how the Constitution should guide presidential authority and the balance of power.
The report draws from a national survey of 4,500 Americans, earlier polling, and three focus groups with Republican participants. It builds on prior SNF Agora research documenting Republican disagreement about the legitimacy of the 2020 election. It shows that these differences now extend to views of presidential power, constitutional limits, elections, and trust in government.
THE RESEARCH IDENTIFIES THREE DISTINCT GROUPS WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY:
TRUMP-FIRST REPUBLICANS (29%):
Believe the president can ignore court decisions if they believe doing so is in the nation’s best interest
Believe Donald Trump should be allowed to run for a third term
Believe Congress should impeach judges who rule against the president
Are happy with the Trump agenda and think the Republican party is moving in the right direction
Had their trust in government institutions significantly damaged by the response to the COVID-19 pandemic
Are more likely than other Republicans to talk only with Republicans about politics
Do not believe Joe Biden won the 2020 election
CONSTITUTION-FIRST REPUBLICANS (34%):
Believe the president cannot ignore court decisions if they believe doing so is in the nation’s best interest.
Strongly believe that politicians are obligated to follow constitutional requirements, even if they are inconvenient
Believe in checks and balances between the legislative and executive branches
Are skeptical that Biden won the 2020 election but have generally higher levels of trust in all election outcomes than other Republicans
Have more politically diverse social groups and are more likely than other Republicans to regularly talk to Democrats
Feel less represented by Donald Trump, Republican-elected politicians, and other Republican voters
PARTY-FIRST REPUBLICANS (36%):
Are unsure or uncertain about whether the president needs to follow court decisions
Feel less represented by specific Republican politicians and thought leaders when compared to the other two groups of Republicans
Do not believe that Donald Trump should be allowed to run for a third term
Do not regularly speak about politics with other people
Are more likely than other Republican groups to hold “uncertain” or “unsure” beliefs about the rule of law, constitutional requirements, and the balance of power
“Americans share deep concern for our democracy, but we do not all have the same reasons,” said Andrew Seligsohn, president of Public Agenda.
“Republicans in particular are divided between those who support unfettered presidential power and those who believe checks and balances are essential to the integrity of our constitutional order.
These differences represent a deep cleavage in the Republican Party with consequences for the future of American democracy.”
ACROSS PARTIES, MOST AMERICANS EXPRESS CONCERN ABOUT U.S. DEMOCRACY.
84% say democracy is either in crisis or facing serious challenges. Only 11% say it is doing well.
78% of Democrats and 50% of Independents say democracy is in crisis.
Among Republicans, 26% of Trump-first Republicans, 19% of Constitution-first Republicans, and 17% of Party-first Republicans say democracy is doing well.
TRUST IN U.S. ELECTIONS IS ALSO PRECARIOUS.
Americans are distrustful of federal elections but attitudes vary by party and when looking at specific electoral outcomes. Free and fair elections are at the heart of U.S. democracy, but Americans are concerned about the fairness of elections at both the local and national level.
The majority of Republicans (82 percent) are not confident that Joe Biden was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election.
This is in stark contrast to the 96 percent of Democrats and 56 percent of Independents who are confident or very confident that Biden won.
Constitution-first Republicans are more confident that Biden won the 2020 election than other Republicans, but they still exhibit lower levels of confidence than Democrats and Independents.
One-third of Americans say federal elections are not free and fair. Local elections receive more confidence, with 59% saying they are fair.
Views of the 2020 presidential election remain sharply divided.
96% of Democrats and 56% of Independents say Joe Biden won legitimately.
Among Republicans, only 18% say they are confident Biden won. Constitution-first Republicans express more confidence than the other Republican groups but remain far lower than Democrats and Independents.
These divergent levels of confidence among Republicans stem from fundamental differences in their underlying concerns about the 2020 electoral process.
Focus group participants pointed to concerns about vote counting or alleged illegal voting by non-citizens as evidence of fraud, using these claims to justify their belief that Trump was the rightful winner of the 2020 election.
“Well, when you go to sleep the night before and he's up 80 million votes but the next morning, he lost by a hundred million. Wait a second, how is that even possible?”
– Trump-first Republican
Constitution-first Republicans—many of whom believe that Trump won the 2020 election—attributed their lack of confidence in elections less to the 2020 election itself, and more to generalized distrust of the election system as a whole.
“I don't think elections are unfair, but I do think it's fair in the sense every vote is counted. I don't think the election is stolen or anything like that, but I just think it's just persuasion by the powerful. It's skewed towards the people that have money, right?”
– Constitution-first Republican
CONCERNS ABOUT GOVERNMENT EXTEND BEYOND ELECTIONS.
70% of Americans agree that politicians do not care about people like them.
In focus groups, many Republicans cited the federal response to the COVID-19 pandemic and distrust of mainstream media as key drivers of declining confidence.
THE STUDY SHOWS DIFFERENCES IN WHERE AMERICANS GET POLITICAL INFORMATION.
46% use online sources, 42% rely on traditional television, and 36% turn to cable news.
Democrats are more likely to watch public and broadcast media. Republicans turn to cable news and podcasts. Independents rely more on online sources.
The three Republican groups also differ in the figures and outlets they follow. Many prefer sources that challenge mainstream narratives, and each group gravitates toward different media personalities.
“These findings illuminate how Americans experience democracy in their daily lives,” said Scott Warren, fellow at the SNF Agora Institute.
“Divides among Republicans over constitutional adherence and presidential power reveal how political identity, trust, and partisan networks shape perceptions of democracy.
Understanding these cleavages, rather than seeing Republicans as a monolithic group, is important for the future of a functioning, pluralistic democracy.”
By examining how Americans reason about the Constitution, elections, and the balance of power, the study offers insight into the forces shaping democratic institutions in the United States and the conditions that support democratic renewal.
The full report, Understanding Evolving Republican Attitudes Towards Democracy, is available on the SNF Agora Institute website at snfagora.jhu.edu/understanding.
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